On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Russia had “secretly deployed” at least one operational unit of a ground-launched cruise missile known as the SSC-8.
The
move, if confirmed, would be a direct violation of a landmark 1987
treaty that banned ground-launched missiles with a range between 300 to
3,400 miles. Commonly referred to as the INF or Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces Treaty, it was billed at the time of its signing as one
of the most “detailed and stringent” treaties in the history of nuclear
arms control.
The existence of the SSC-8 missile is not new.
Reports indicate that the nuclear-capable missile was first tested in
early 2008. In 2014, after several years of watching the development of
the missile program, the Obama administration announced that Russia had
violated the INF treaty.
“The missile has been several years in
development, so it is not a surprise,” said Jeffrey Lewis, the director
of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of
International Studies at Monterey. “That said, there is a big
difference between a system being developed and one that is deployed
with military units.”
On Tuesday, a defense official, speaking on
the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, would not
say that the missiles had been “deployed” but that they had “moved
around” in recent months. Army Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza would not
comment on the movement of the missiles but said that Russia remains in
violation of its INF treaty obligations.
Michael Kofman, a
Russian military analyst at the research organization CNA, indicated
that the two units mentioned in the New York Times report are probably
divisions similar to the structure of Iskander missile units.
Traditionally, each missile division has four vehicles capable of
launching the system, accompanied by supporting units meant for
targeting, maintenance and reloading, Kofman said. He added that it
would have taken months to prepare the missiles and their launchers for
actual field deployments, raising questions about how long the Obama and
Trump administrations knew of their location before it was reported on
by the Times.
Little is known about the SSC-8, but according to Lewis, the missile
is probably a ground-based version of the Russians’ Kalibr cruise
missile. The Kalibr is a ship- and submarine-launched missile capable of
carrying about 1,000 pounds of conventional explosives or a nuclear
warhead. In a show of force, Russian vessels have launched Kalibrs into
Syria on several occasions. While there are multiple variants of the
Kalibr, its max range is about 1,500 miles.
The biggest question
mark, however, is what the SSC-8 is launched from. If it is a larger
variant of the Russian 9M728 cruise missile fired from the INF
treaty-compliant Iskander short-range missile system, it might be able
to fit on the same launcher, thus making it difficult for surveillance
to discern the difference between the two.
It is unclear how the
United States will respond to the continued development and potential
deployment of the new missile. President Trump has called for warmer
relations with Moscow, but Republican lawmakers voiced concern Tuesday
over the reported missile activity.
“In light of the most recent
developments, it is time for the new administration to take immediate
action to enhance our deterrent posture in Europe and protect our
allies,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.)
said in a statement. “More broadly, we must continue the ongoing
modernization of U.S. nuclear forces and ensure that NATO’s nuclear
deterrence forces are survivable, well-exercised, and increasingly ready
to counter Russian nuclear doctrine, which calls for the first use of
nuclear weapons.”

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